Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
