Within the considerable disarray surrounding the US strikes on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “manage” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, one thing is clear – these actions create a truly chilling precedent.
Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed
The United States carries a troubling legacy of meddling, military incursions, and control in the region, but the early hours of Saturday witnessed its first major military attack on the continent of South America. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” the President stated.
The choice to militarily strike another sovereign country and seize its president – mere days after he stated a desire for negotiations – possesses far-reaching consequences. It should alarm us all.
A Nation Left in Limbo
Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has remarked that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and rejected rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.
However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the leadership-stricken government are considerably more radical.
From Global Policeman to International Outlaw
A man who came to office promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He does not see the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is turning it into a lawless actor.
He is convinced that the America's power permits it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: consider the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He promises that Venezuelan oil means this most recent venture “won’t cost us a penny”.
An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty
George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came lacking any form of UN approval or congressional approval; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to obliterate them.
Put aside the implication this carries to global powers like Russia and China, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will surely embolden additional military gambits.
The Thin Pretext and True Motives
Few believe the pretext that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is motivated by the promise of energy wealth as well as personal bravado, the worldview of key officials, and the desire for glory as domestic popularity wanes.
A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance
The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.
Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could still pressure him to redirect his gaze inward – but soaring healthcare premiums, financial discontent and ongoing controversies increase his appetite for distraction.
We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may live to repent if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.
